IMD Warns of Heavy Rain, Strong Winds Across Southern India Through Late November 2025

Heavy rain, squally winds, and a brewing depression over the Bay of Bengal are set to disrupt life across southern India through the end of November 2025, the India Meteorological Department warned in a series of bulletins issued between November 20 and 24. The alert isn’t just for fishermen or coastal communities—it’s for tourists on ferries, residents of high-rises in Kochi, and even schoolchildren in Chennai whose outdoor activities could be canceled for days. The system, which began as a low-pressure area over the Strait of Malacca and South Andaman Sea on November 23, is expected to intensify into a depression by November 24 before moving west-northwest toward the southwest Bay of Bengal. And the impact? It’s already being felt.

Storm Brewing Over the Bay

The India Meteorological Department’s CFS V-2 model showed a 60-70% probability of cyclogenesis forming in the central south Bay of Bengal during the first week of December’s precursor period. By November 23, the system had already triggered very heavy rainfall across the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, with wind gusts hitting 75 kmph in some areas. The IMD’s forecast for November 23-24 specified that the islands would see “very heavy rainfall,” with “squally weather” continuing until November 25. That’s not just inconvenient—it’s dangerous for small vessels and low-lying coastal zones.

Meanwhile, Kerala was bracing for a different kind of deluge. According to the IMD Thiruvananthapuram forecast dated November 20, “Fairly Widespread Light to Moderate Rainfall with Isolated Heavy Rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm and lightning” was expected on November 22 and 23. By the 24th, it eased to scattered showers, and by the 25th and 26th, only isolated light rain. The pattern was clear: a sharp peak, then a rapid decline.

Temperature Drops and Regional Disparities

While the south drowned, the north cooled. The IMD noted that minimum temperatures across Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad would plunge below 6°C—freezing conditions in places where winter tourism is already peaking. In Punjab, temperatures hovered between 7-10°C, while travelers to Jaipur, Shimla, and Rishikesh could expect days that felt crisp and pleasant, but nights that required heavy jackets. A 2-4°C drop over the week was forecasted across northern states, with no major changes expected in northwest India’s plains until late November.

And then there’s the fog. Shallow to moderate fog blanketed northeast India—from Assam to Nagaland—making early morning commutes hazardous. In isolated pockets of West Madhya Pradesh, a cold wave on November 22-23 disrupted morning traffic but, as the IMD noted, posed “no major disruptions.” That’s the understatement of the season.

Who’s Affected and How

The IMD didn’t just issue warnings—it spelled out consequences. “The weather systems will have direct implications not just for fishermen but also for tourists onboard private yachts, ferries, and cruise vessels,” said the Times of India report, citing IMD officials. That means cruise lines docking in Kochi or Cochin may face delays. Ferry operators between the mainland and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands were advised to suspend operations. Even local markets in Thiruvananthapuram reported early stockpiling of essentials as residents braced for power outages and flooded streets.

Meanwhile, Kerala’s agricultural sector—already reeling from erratic monsoons—faced a mixed bag. While rainfall was below normal for the cumulative period, the intense bursts on the 22nd and 23rd could damage banana and tapioca crops. “It’s not the amount, it’s the timing,” said Dr. Latha Menon, a senior agronomist with the Kerala Agricultural University. “Heavy rain during flowering stages can ruin yields overnight.”

The Turning Point: Late November to Early December

Here’s the relief: after November 25, the system weakens. The depression is forecasted to lose intensity as it moves inland, and rainfall over southern coastal states will taper off. By December 1, 2025, Kerala is expected to see “broken clouds,” temperatures between 24°C and 30°C, and a 0% rain risk. December 2 follows suit, with just a 10% chance of rain. That’s not just a forecast—it’s a return to normalcy.

The transition isn’t just weather—it’s economic. The IMD’s extended forecast, issued from its headquarters at Mausam Bhawan, Lodhi Road, New Delhi, suggests a stable window opens for tourism, maritime trade, and power grid management. Airlines are already adjusting schedules. The Kerala Tourism Department quietly issued a “travel advisory” on November 23, urging visitors to postpone non-essential trips until December 1.

Who’s Calling the Shots?

Behind these forecasts are the scientists at the India Meteorological Department, led by its Director General, Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, and supported by forecasting specialists Dr. Naresh Kumar and Dr. Akhil Srivastava. Their team uses the CFS V-2 model, satellite data from INSAT-3DR, and ground-level sensors across 1,500 stations to piece together what’s coming. They don’t guess—they calculate. And when they say “60-70% probability,” they mean it.